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Boosting NV’s non-PC revenue

Trefis beancounters believe Nvidia’s Tegra business is likely to grow over the next few years, although Nvidia won’t become a mobile chip company anytime soon.

In a note published a couple of days ago, Trefis concluded that Nvidia has managed to offset the impact of the PC slump thanks to mobile revenue. The PC market took a massive hit in 2012, and although things are looking up, Tegra could still come in handy.

Nvidia currently earns about 18 percent of its revenue from Tegra processors, which is not bad for a product that was on the drawing board just a few years ago.

“We estimate Tegra sales to grow at a CAGR of 17% until 2016. While we believe that Nvidia will manage to expand its footprint in mobile computing, we think that the increasing competition will keep its growth rate lower than the industry average,” said Trefis.

However, Trefis went on to conclude that Nvidia had more lack with tablets than smartphones. Last year it scored several big tablet design wins, but relatively few phone wins. The Tegra 4i, with integrated LTE, should lend a helping hand, but it won’t be ready for much of 2013. In addition, Nvidia is facing more pressure from Qualcomm and Samsung, while at the same time it was forced to push back the introduction of Tegra 4 due to technical issues.

Trefis believes Tegra’s contribution to Nvidia’s overall revenue could reach over 25 percent by 2019, which means the Tegra business won’t expand much in a mature smartphone market.

Nvidia has Tegra, AMD has consoles, so both outfits have something to fall back on in a slow PC market, at least for the time being.