Forget Guaranteed Income – Governments Need To Stop Prohibiting Income

Authored by Lee Friday via The Mises Institute,

In most countries, numerous government welfare programs provide benefits (often means-tested) to eligible recipients. Whether these payments arise from unemployment compensation, child tax credits, old age pensions, or a myriad of other programs, the outcome is the same: recipients receive guaranteed payments. The ultimate goal of many poverty warriors is aUniversal Basic Income(UBI), often promoted as a supposedly cheaper alternative to the numerous welfare programs it is intended to replace. The UBI is a guaranteed income from the government which varies with age, but is otherwise unconditional. It isnotmeans tested, which means everyone receives the same Basic Income, regardless of their employment status or employment income.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez,Kamala Harris,Bernie Sanders,Andrew Yang. These are just a few of the many proponents of UBI or anegative income tax, or some version thereof. The political justification for implementing UBI is to reduce, or even eradicate, poverty, thoughpoverty is a relative term. The problem is that many advocates of the welfare statemistakenly believe that inequality causes poverty. Moreover, they do not understand that poverty reduction comes through the operation offree markets, notthrough government welfare programswhich tend tobenefit the bureaucracy by encouraging dependency.

Therefore, if UBI proponents aregenuinelyconcerned about those on the lower rungs of the income ladder, they should abandon their minimum income crusade and instead pressure the government to do two things.

First, immediately abolish allregulationswhichprohibitpeople from earning income.

Second, announce that all welfare programs will be abolished in six months.

In this environment, special interest groups (the 1%) lose the regulatory benefits they lobbied for, while the level of prosperity rises considerably for the former welfare recipients and other members of the 99%.

What are these regulations? And if they are abolished, how much higher can the level of prosperity be for the 99%?


Thisis a good definition ofregulation: the imposition of rules by a government, backed by the use of penalties, that are intended specifically to modify the economic behavior of individuals and firms in the private sector. That is an accurate definition, and it should concern anyone who recognizes and supports the wealth enhancing effects of free enterprise.

When a special interest group (e.g. a corporation or group of corporations) lobbies the government to enact a new regulation,theyare the intended beneficiaries, and they often write the regulation themselves. Politicians promoting a new regulation also act out of self interest, collecting rewards from the regulatory beneficiaries, such as political campaign contributions, corporate jobs after departure from political office etc. The propaganda used to justify regulations is that thegovernment must protect consumers. This conveniently ignores the fact that in an environment of unfettered competition, profit-seeking firms who fail to satisfy consumers will lose those customers to competitors producing superior products. In other words, consumers benefit the most when they, not the government, pick the winners and losers.

Regulations have the effect of lowering the level of competition for the corporations that lobbied for the regulations, exactly as the lobbyists intended. This situation arises because regulations impose significant regulatory compliance costs on many companies.Kel Kelly explainsthe enormity of the regulatory environment:

There are hundreds of thousands of pages of regulations dictating what can and cannot be produced, how things should be produced, what prices can or cannot be charged, what workers should be hired and at what prices, and what requirements, approvals, licensing, and reporting must be undertaken or performed for each type of business, product line, or transaction. Further, government directly manipulates prices and production.

All firms may pass part of their regulatory compliance costs onto consumers and workers through higher prices and/or lower wages, but small firms operate at a disadvantage. Smaller firms have fewer employees and a smaller customer base, compared to larger firms. Therefore, the dispersal of compliance costs within small firms can produce larger price increases and/or larger wage reductions, as compared to larger firms. Thus, many small businesses are unable to compete, not because the entrepreneurs, managers, and workers are not good enough, but because they are compelled to obey authoritarian laws favoring large firms with more political influence. Consequently, many entrepreneurs are forced out of business, while many others are dissuaded from starting a business.

(Note: the regulatory ‘compliance cost’ which is ultimately paid by consumers and workers, isestimatedto be almost $15,000 annually for each U.S. household.)

As per our definition, we see that regulations, by coercively “modifying economic behavior,” interfere with the voluntary interactions of individuals on the free market. Economic production falls considerably when the regulatory state is used to eliminate competitors. Less competition = less wealth creation, which is reflected in fewer jobs and lower incomes for the 99%. This does not concern the 1%, whose objective is to grab a larger slice of the smaller economic pie. This isnotcapitalism. This iscrony capitalism.

Prohibited Income

In 2013, John Dawson (Appalachian State University) and John Seater (North Carolina State University) published a long-term study (seehereorhere) of the effects of U.S. Federal Regulations on economic growth. They estimate that “annual output by 2005 is about 28 percent of what it would have been had regulation remained at its 1949 level.” Their sample period ends in 2005, but under the assumption that the ratio of 28 percent carries forward to 2011, they say that nominal GDP in 2011 would have been $53.9 trillion instead of $15.1 trillion, and “an annual loss of $38.8 trillion converts to about $277,100 per household and $129,300 per person.”

Remember, they are estimating the amount of economic output which has beenprohibitedby all U.S. Federal Regulations implemented since 1949. So, in 2011, each U.S. household waslegally denied the opportunity to increase their incomeby an average of $277,100. Imagine this happening each year, because that is the reality. For those who would disbelieve, Dawson and Seater simply point out that “Our estimates are consistent with previous estimates obtained from both aggregate and disaggregate data. In fact, our estimates are on the low side compared to many previous results.”

Their calculation captures data only at the federal level. The figure of $277,100 would be higher in consideration of the lower economic output due to prevailing regulations at the state/city/county level.

If all regulations were abolished, individuals’ creative juices could flow freely because innovation would no longer be suppressed. Unfettered competition would produce new products, higher quality, and lower prices. The demand for labor would explode, and incomes, as we have seen, would rise considerably.


As Senator Elizabeth Warrenofficially launched her 2020 presidential campaign, she expressed concern about “a rigged system that props up the rich and powerful and kicks dirt on everyone else.” She is correct, but this is nothing more than a sound bite designed to resonate with the general public. As with most political speeches, Warren’s comments are vague, providing no details abouthowthe system is rigged with thousands of regulations. Instead of accurately describing the problem,we get hypocrisy: “She wants large companies to be more tightly regulated.” Beware of people like Elizabeth Warren. There are many like her. They are wolves in sheep’s clothing.

Welfare programs andwealth taxes: the government’s pretense of transferring a little bit of wealth from the rich to the poor is a smokescreen for the massive amount of wealth surreptitiously flowing in the opposite direction.

So, when Ocasio-Cortez, Harris, Sanders, or anyone else proposes any type of guaranteed minimum income scheme, tell them “No, my preference is to liberate all prohibited income.”


Setup e Angoli di Gann: FTSE MIB INDEX 21 Marzo 2019

FTSE MIB INDEXSetup e Angoli di Gann

Setup Annuale:ultimi: 2016/2017 (range 15017/23133 ) [ uscita rialzista ]prossimo 2019/2020

Setup Mensile:ultimo Dicembre (range 17914/ 19674 ) [ uscita rialzista ]prossimi Febbraio,Marzo,Giugno

Setup Settimanale:ultimi: 4/8 Marzo ( range 20385/ 21110 ) [ uscita rialzista ]prossimi 18/22 Marzo,1/5 Aprile,22/26 Aprile

Setup Giornalieroultimo : 19 Marzo (range 21230 / 21483 ) [ in attesa ]prossimi 25

FTSEMIB Ang. Annuali 2019: 15880, 18090, 19456 , 20480, 21620, 24576, 26630ALLSHARE Ang.Annuali 2019: 16929, 19456, 20513, 21400, 24576,26100COMIT Ang. Annuali 2019: 788, 916, 966, 1140, 1216, 1380 1400,1588

Angoli Trimestrali Genn-Marzo 15624,16400, 17382, 18950, 20300, 24064Angoli Mensili Marzo 18180,19450, 20480, 20980, 21250, 21980Angoli Settimanali: 19550, 20150, 20990, 21660Angoli Giornalieri : 21012, 21122, 21224, 21544, 21630,

I commenti giornalieri sull’articolo riguardante i Setup e gli Angoli di Gann saranno sempre disabilitati e continueranno sempre nell’articolo unico settimanali

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CESI: la grande convergenza e il segnale di inversione

Il mio parere è noto. Il rally di borsa ha bisogno, dopo aver recuperato il terreno perso a fine anno per errori di comunicazione della FED e per la diatriba commerciale, di nuova linfa che solo dei dati macroeconomici in miglioramento possono fornirci.Nel concreto, questi segnali macroeconomici positivi non li sto vedendo.

In compenso però c’è una piccola nota positiva. Nelle maggiori aree geografiche e in particolare nell’area dell’euro, i dati ciclici hanno smesso di sorprendere negativamente.

Chi segue questo blog, avrà imparato a conoscere l’indice CESI, ovvero il Citigroup Economic Surprise Index, l’indice che registra la differenza positiva o negativa tra dati effettivi e stime di consenso. Quindi, in altri termini, registra le sorprese in negativo e in positivo dei dati macro. Se ovviamente questi dati fossero usciti “migliori delle attese”, avremmo avuto un’impennata degli indici. Ma questo non è accaduto. Però possiamo dire che il CESI, in tutte le aree globali, si è praticamente stabilizzato. Grossi recuperi non si stanno vedendo. Qualche raggio di luce lo intravvediamo in Europa (CESI in miglioramento) ma poco di più.Ovviamente il CESI è tutto fuorchè statico e già a partire da questa settimana, capiremo se con i dati PMI, le cose possano migliorare. Intanto però il CESI si dimostra molto interessante nella struttura.

CESI: la grande convergenza

E’ evidente che tutti i sotto indici CESI (geografici) stanno convergendo in un’area di lateralità ma in territorio negativo.Ecco, il segnale quindi diventa MOLTO importante. Se il CESI dovesse ripartire verso l’alto in modo contemporaneo nelle varie aree globali (portando quindi l’indice CESI G10 in terreno positivo) allora avremmo a che fare con un segnale molto forte che giustificherebbe anche il raggiungimenti dei massimi storici sullo SP500 , più importanti rimbalzi in Asia ed Europa.In caso contrario, l’ottimismo di inizio anno rischia di scemare a favore di un corposo “take profit”.


Danilo DT

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